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Can the Class of 2006
Save the Democrats?
Pro-business, conservative and military candidates
may be key to victory; look for tension with the left
A dozen new faces to watch
By JACKIE CALMES and GREG HITT
November 4, 2006; Page A1
If the polls turn out to be correct and the Democrats rack up big congressional gains Tuesday, they will have to thank a crop of candidates who don't look like a lot of the Democrats already in Washington.
But the likely rise of these new Democrats -- moderate-to-conservative, like the Republican-leaning districts they seek to represent -- suggests that congressional Democrats' collective face after January 2007 won't be so liberal. And that could hold the seeds for tension between the newcomers and the old team that would pull the levers of power.
Already, Mrs. Pelosi -- who would likely be Speaker if her party wins a House majority -- is privately trying to insist that liberals tamp down expectations of getting out of Iraq now. Democratic allies in the House say she wouldn't do anything to jeopardize the new recruits' electoral future, and by extension Democrats' newfound power.
Former Kentucky state Rep. Mike Weaver, a Vietnam veteran who Democrats hope can win a congressional seat Tuesday, is running on a platform of "family, faith, freedom" opposing abortion, gay marriage and gun control. He reckons the new Congress could have as many as 40 moderate-to-conservative Democrats and another 29 anti-abortion conservatives. "If you have 69 people that have a more conservative view of things, you can't ignore them," he says.
This centrist tinge is no accident. Rep. Rahm Emanuel of Chicago and New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, the chairmen of Democrats' House and Senate campaign committees, recruited their players starting just after Mr. Bush's 2004 reelection, when the landscape hardly looked favorable for Democrats. Their goal: win across the country in Republican-leaning districts and states that their party had all but ceded to Republicans in the Bush era.
The Pro-Business Candidates and Fiscal Conservatives
As Gabrielle Giffords tries to become the first Democrat in more than 20 years to hold the House seat representing Tucson, Ariz., she's playing up her business credentials. The 36-year-old highlights her experience running her family's tire company, and as managing partner of a small property-management firm. In a party more associated with trial lawyers and labor unions, Ms. Giffords is one of more than two dozen Democrats endorsed by the New Democrat Coalition, a group of 40 lawmakers who have tried to steer the party toward more pro-business policies, and toward limiting taxes and spending.
Another New Democrat pick is Tim Mahoney, who runs a $1-billion South Florida investment banking and private-equity firm, recruited by Mr. Emanuel for a long-shot bid to oust Republican Rep. Mark Foley. After Mr. Foley's sudden resignation in the House page scandal, Mr. Mahoney's odds suddenly improved. At a recent Loxahatchee appearance, he vowed to fight estate taxes, calling them a burden on family farmers.
A Democratic-led Congress -- particularly if joined by Democratic president after 2008 -- would face tremendous pressures to boost taxes, at least on the upper-income brackets, and to boost spending for a wide range of social programs from health care to education.
But one of the party's promising prospects, Indiana sheriff Brad Ellsworth, has signed a formal pledge against any tax increases with the conservative Americans for Tax Reform. "A lot of money comes into our government," Mr. Ellsworth said in a recent debate. "What makes Hoosiers so mad is when you see the wasteful spending."
The Clean-Up Crew
Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats to take over the House. In at least 20 contests, Democratic challengers are either running against Republican incumbents in ethics or legal scrapes, or against Republicans tarnished by others' scandals.
These new Democrats could form the nucleus of a reform movement similar to Republicans' own when they captured Congress in the "Republican Revolution" in 1994.
--Sarah Lueck contributed to this article.
Write to Jackie Calmes at jackie.calmes@wsj.com1 and Greg Hitt at greg.hitt@wsj.com2
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